Why horizon scanning
Supervisors expect you to know
what was published yesterday.
Regulatory horizon scanning is the systematic, continuous monitoring of supervisory signals — from EU consultations to national administrative practice — before they become binding. The EBA, OECD and European Commission anchor it as standard methodology for agile compliance.
Definition
What horizon scanning is.
The structured collection of emerging regulation, consultations and supervisory signals — classified by impact, likelihood and deadline. The UK Government Cabinet Office Futures Toolkit calls it "looking ahead, looking across, looking around." In financial services the scope is narrower: regulatory texts, enforcement trends, consultation cycles.
GOV.UK · Cabinet Office Futures Toolkit- 01
Looking ahead
Consultations, drafts and RTS — months before they become binding.
- 02
Looking across
45 EU / EEA supervisory authorities in parallel — national practice converges on EU level.
- 03
Looking around
Enforcement trends, speeches, industry briefings — the signals next to the text.
What is at stake
Penalty ceilings have risen materially in 2025.
Concrete EU sanction ceilings plus the shift of AML enforcement weight toward Europe. Each figure below links to the primary source.
- DORA1 %
of daily worldwide turnover — coercive penalty on critical ICT third-party providers (Art. 35); financial-entity penalties are set by Member States (Art. 50). Applicable since 17 Jan 2025.
DORA · Art. 35 + 50 (EUR-Lex) - EU AI Act7 %
worldwide annual turnover or EUR 35 m — high-risk categories in force 02 Aug 2026
Holland & Knight · EU AI Act Brief - MiCA licence01.07.2026
transitional period ends — without a licence, EU-wide service halt
Norton Rose Fulbright · ESMA MiCA Transitional - Penalties EMEA+767 %
EMEA total penalties y-o-y 2024 → 2025 (vs −18 % globally); single case: UBS EUR 835m / ~USD 985m (French money-laundering/tax case, Sept 2025)
Fenergo · Global Penalties 2025
What you gain
Four effects that recur in EBA, EIOPA, OECD and McKinsey evidence.
Efficiency, not headcount
The compliance function has spent a decade growing FTEs. McKinsey dates the growth peak; future gains come from technology rather than more staff.
McKinsey · Compliance Function at an Inflection Point (2019)Early warning, not reaction
The EBA lists "regulatory horizon screening" as a RegTech use case with documented "enhanced risk management" and reduction of human error. Signals are classified before they turn into breaches.
EBA · Analysis of RegTech in the EU Financial Sector (2021)Auditability by default
BaFin and EIOPA expect supervised institutions to evidence when they became aware of a requirement. An immutable audit trail replaces "we think it was around then."
BaFin · Insurance Supervision Annual Conference 2024 / 2025Speed against the inspection clock
The OECD 2025 recommendation for agile regulatory governance: horizon scanning + scenario analysis + iterative adjustment. Real-time monitoring, not a quarterly cadence.
OECD · Regulatory Policy Outlook 2025
From concept to product.
Here's how we turn horizon scanning into an auditable pipeline.